Washington, D.C. — As the nation heads toward the key midterm elections on November 3, polls indicate that President Donald Trump is grappling with unprecedented unpopularity, surpassing the record set by former President Harry Truman. CNN’s chief data analyst highlighted this concerning trend during a segment aired on October 20.
Recent surveys reveal that Trump’s net approval ratings have plummeted to alarming lows, with multiple polls reporting figures well below those historically associated with a midterm election. NBC’s poll shows the president at minus 32, with ABC reporting minus 33, Reuters/Ipsos at minus 35, and a staggering minus 38 according to Pew Research Center data. Truman’s net approval, recorded at minus 30 during the lead-up to the 1946 midterms, was previously considered the lowest; however, current numbers suggest Trump has shattered that record.
Harry Enten emphasized the severity of Trump’s current standing while discussing the statistics. This downward trend poses a significant threat to Republican prospects as the midterm election approaches. Polling data reveals a deeper concern for the party, as many Republican candidates appear to be dragging in the wake of Trump’s unfavorable ratings.
Specifically, the Reuters/Ipsos poll cites Trump’s net approval rating at minus 35, the lowest point of his presidency, contrasting sharply with the plus 6 rating he held during the start of his second term in January 2025. Among independent voters, Trump’s standing falls even more dramatically, recorded at minus 54, which signals a major shift in a critical voting demographic.
Enten dismisses the notion that these figures represent an outlier, noting a consistent trend across numerous polls leading into the midterms. Historical comparisons to past presidents, including Truman and George W. Bush, reveal that low approvals often foreshadow losses for the incumbent party in Congress.
Pew’s polling, showing Trump’s net approval at a historic low of minus 38 before a midterm, contributes to the growing narrative among analysts that there is no modern precedent for a president facing such challenges at this stage. Other significant polls also reflected similarly grim ratings, intensifying concerns among Republican strategists.
The exodus of independent voters plays a crucial role in these findings, with Pew’s research indicating a sharp 57-point deficit for Trump among these key voters. This demographic shift could have dire implications for the Republican Party as they navigate the election landscape.
At a recent rally in Kansas, Trump attempted to rally support by promising financial incentives of $5,000 to every adult citizen should Republicans retain congressional control. In a past interview, he expressed confusion over historical patterns where presidents often lose midterm elections despite perceived success in their first two years.
Despite the bleak outlook presented in polls, the White House remains optimistic. A spokesperson reiterated Trump’s effectiveness as a leader and motivator for the party. Nevertheless, ongoing issues, particularly regarding economic performance, continue to dominate voter concerns and detract from Trump’s efforts.
The political environment remains hostile for Trump and Republican candidates. Many party insiders echo the sentiment expressed by former Florida Congressman Carlos Curbelo, who noted that there is a distinct lack of optimism regarding Republican prospects for retaining control of the House.
With elections on the horizon, the trajectory of Trump’s presidency and the Republican Party hangs in the balance as they confront challenging approval ratings and an electorate increasingly dissatisfied with their leadership.