Senate Democrats face a tough battle this fall as they try to hold onto their slim majority in November, including defending 22 incumbent seats, many in Republican-leaning states. Additionally, they will need to compensate for the loss of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who announced his retirement from the Senate last year. With West Virginia being one of the reddest states in the nation, Democrats see a challenging path to retaining the seat without Manchin. Their best, yet unlikely, hope is to pick up a seat in either Texas or Florida, where Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are running for reelection.
Currently, Senate Democrats possess a 51-49 majority, with 48 Democrats and three independents who caucus with them. Here’s where the Senate map stands nine months from Election Day and a look at the earliest fundraising numbers for the year.
In Montana, Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking reelection for a fourth term. Despite the state’s Republican-leaning tendencies, Tester remains popular with an approval rating of approximately 61%, according to a Morning Consult poll. Last quarter, Tester outraised his GOP opponent Tim Sheehy, but he spent more than he raised.
In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is defending his seat in a swing state that turned red in the 2020 election. Brown outraised the three Republicans hoping to challenge him in November and finished the year with significant cash on hand.
Senate Democrats are also focusing on Arizona, where Senator Kyrsten Sinema faces potential challengers from both parties.
In Pennsylvania, third-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey is expected to face off against Republican businessman Dave McCormick in the upcoming election. McCormick outraised Casey in the last quarter of 2023 but trails in overall funds.
In Texas and Florida, long-shot victories are hoped for by Senate Democrats, despite the historical leaning of both states towards the Republican party. In Florida, Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will challenge two-term Senator Rick Scott.
Lastly, Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin is running to succeed Senator Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and has raised significant funds for her campaign. Additionally, in Texas, Democratic Representative Colin Allred is set to challenge Senator Ted Cruz and, rather surprisingly, outraised Cruz in the last quarter.
With key Senate races heating up across the country, the balance of power in the Senate hangs in the balance, making the upcoming elections crucial for both Democrats and Republicans.